The SABR (Society for American Baseball Research) group is dedicated to the advance of study in baseball’s past and present. SABR runs The Baseball Index, which is a free catalogue with a variety of baseball information for baseball fans and researchers.
It is holding its annual convention this month from Tuesday, June 27th through Saturday, July 1st. All of the information that you could ever ask for about the event may be found here. Under the section “Downloads” on the right side of the page, you can download a registration form if you would like to attend the convention.
After perusing some of the topics under discussion, I found one in particular that seems rather interesting. On Thursday, June 29th at 4PM, Phil Birnbaum will be speaking on the topic: Do Players Outperform in Their Free-Agent Year? Here is the abstract of the discussion that will occur:
It seems logical that a player looking for a big free agent contract would work extra-hard to build a solid record of achievement in the season just before he goes on the market. It’s also logical for a player to try to maximize his achievements in highly important game situations, yet extensive research has failed to demonstrate reliable evidence of “clutchiness”. If no such effect is evident for in-game situations, can we find a season-long effect of response to the free-agency incentive? After reviewing previous research on the topic, in this presentation Phil Birnbaum reports the results of his sabermetric examination of the statistical record through the 2003 free-agent crop.
It would be nice for baseball agents to know statistically if their clients will perform better in contract year (the season just before he goes on the market). This information would allow an agent increased information on whether contracts should be re-negotiated before that year or if such a client should hold out on any negotiations until free-agency.
I am not the biggest supporter of statistical/performance analysis, but I do not completely rule out its validity. Statistics should be employed by agents if they can work to their clients’ benefit.
[tags]sabr, society for american baseball research, baseball, statistical analysis, performance analysis, sabr 36, free agent[/tags]
