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Contract Negotiation MLB Players Performance Analysis

Expected Batting Average

Your baseball client’s contract is about to expire and you and your interns are crunching numbers to make sure that he is properly valued in the upcoming negotiations with various organizations.  This client is a position player, so your standard statistics of batting average, home runs, RBIS, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage will be computated and compared to others in the league.  Will you bring something unique to the table if you use more creative, new-types of statistics to show your client’s value, or will an organization’s GM laugh you right out the door?

Rick Karcher of Sports Law Blog found an interesting piece in USA Today that discusses a brand new statistic, that if held to be reputable, would be an interesting tool for an agent to bring into an arbitration hearing or contract negotiation.  It is called Expected Bating Average, or xBA.  A team is interested in a position player not for what he has done in the past (although his past performance may still sell future tickets before he even steps up to the plate), but mostly for the runs he will generate in the future.  If there were a solid statistic to predict such success, then it may be useful for an agent to at least try to convince a GM of its effectiveness.

Karcher ripped the important part out of the USA Today article:

It does start with a batter’s ability to distinguish between balls and strikes, which we can measure using his walk/strikeout rate. Once he’s determined a hittable pitch, we can measure his contact rate: (at-bats — strikeouts) / at-bats. But once contact is made, we enter a gray area.  The odds of a batted ball falling for a hit are only partially within the batter’s control. The stronger his power and speed skills — along with his propensity to hit the ball on the ground, in the air or on a line — the more control he may have over the outcome. But even the hardest-hit ball can become an out.
“Expected batting average,” or xBA, calculates what a player’s batting average should be based upon these component events along with a normalization for aberrant batting average on balls-in-play (BABIP) levels.
I would not expect any sports agent to be able to compute the statistics him/herself, but the more ammo that you have with you, the better of your client may be.

By Darren Heitner

Darren Adam Heitner, Esq., is a preeminent sports attorney and the founder of Heitner Legal, P.L.L.C., a Fort Lauderdale-based law firm specializing in sports law, contract negotiations, intellectual property, and arbitration. He earned his Juris Doctor from the University of Florida Levin College of Law in 2010 and a Bachelor of Arts in Political Science, magna cum laude, from the University of Florida in 2007, where he was named Valedictorian of the College of Liberal Arts and Sciences. Admitted to practice in the state bars of Florida, New York, and the District of Columbia, as well as multiple federal courts, Darren also serves as a certified arbitrator with the American Arbitration Association.

As an adjunct professor, Darren imparts his expertise through teaching Sports Law at the University of Florida Levin College of Law and Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) at the University of Miami School of Law in the Entertainment, Arts, and Sports Law LL.M. program. His scholarly contributions include authoring several books published by the American Bar Association, such as How to Play the Game: What Every Sports Attorney Needs to Know, and numerous articles in prominent publications like Forbes, Inc. Magazine, and Above the Law. His thought leadership in NIL has earned him recognition as one of the foremost experts by The Wall Street Journal, USA TODAY, and On3, and he has been lauded as a “power player in NIL deals” by Action Network and a “top sports trademark attorney” by Sportico.

Darren’s passion for sports law led him to establish Sports Agent Blog on December 31, 2005, initially titled “I Want To Be A Sports Agent.” The platform, created as a New Year’s resolution, has grown into a cornerstone of the sports agency community, offering in-depth analysis of industry trends, legal disputes, and agent-player dynamics. His commitment to the field is further evidenced by his representation of numerous athletes and sports agents, as well as his prior role as an Adjunct Professor at Indiana University Bloomington, where he developed and taught a course on Sport Agency Management from 2011 to 2014.

Darren’s contributions have been recognized with prestigious honors, including the University of Florida’s 40 Under 40 Award, the University of Florida Levin College of Law’s Outstanding Young Alumnus Award, and designation as the best lawyer in Fort Lauderdale by Fort Lauderdale Magazine. He remains an active voice in the sports law community, sharing insights through his weekly NIL newsletter and his X posts, engaging a broad audience on legal developments in sports.

4 replies on “Expected Batting Average”

Or will a team/GM use this to show you why your client isn’t worth what you claim?

It cuts both ways, doesn’t it?

“if held to be reputable” seems to be the key to the blog. Who determines what is reputable? Could a team basically disregard any statistic that isn’t set in stone?(such as Batting Average, RISP, RBI’s, Ect). In my honest opinion, the xBA is a load of BS, but I guess if you can sell it to someone, why not try.

Eric-

Whoever is more convincing is who is more reputable. xBA may be a load of BS, but again, if you can make it sound like it works, then it may be effective. Why is TB a stat? Is it important? To some, yes, to some no. A team can disregard any stat that it does not think is worthy for discussion; however, in a setting like an arbitration hearing, you need only convince the arbitrator that it should be considered.

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