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Let’s Make a Deal – Sam Bradford

Welcome back to the Let’s Make a Deal column. Now that the draft is set in stone, I will be able to predict my contracts more accurately. Let’s start with Oklahoma quarterback Sam Bradford.

Sam Bradford

QB, Oklahoma

1st Overall Selection in 2010 to the St. Louis Rams

Requested Contract: 6 years/ $78 million with $50 million guaranteed

Sam Bradford is one of the most gifted quarterbacks to enter the NFL draft in a while. He is a Heisman Trophy winner and was one of the most accurate quarterbacks while in college. After injuring his shoulder in his final season with Oklahoma, there were many that doubted his ability to fight back from that injury and be a successful quarterback in the NFL. Bradford fought hard and worked endlessly to show the NFL teams that he was worthy of their pick. After seeing Bradford at his OU Pro Day, Rams’ GM Bill Devaney knew that this kid was the one. Sam Bradford is a beacon of hard work, perseverance, and mental toughness.

Here are the 1st overall contracts from the years 2007-2009 (percentage increase/decrease from the previous year is shown and reflects the per year amounts):

  • 2007: JaMarcus Russell, QB, LSU (Raiders)– 6 years/$61 million
  • 2008: Jake Long, OT, Michigan (Dolphins) – 5 years/$57.75 million (+13.68%)
  • 2009: Matthew Stafford, QB, Georgia (Lions)– 6 years/$72 million (+3.90%)

Here are the guaranteed amounts given to each of these players:

  • 2007: JaMarcus Russell, QB, LSU (Raiders) – 6 years/$31.5 million
    • $5.25 million/year
  • 2008: Jake Long, OT, Michigan (Dolphins) – 5 years/$30 million
    • $6 million/year (+14.28%)
  • 2009: Matthew Stafford, QB, Georgia (Lions) – 6years/$41.75 million
    • $6.96 million/year (+16%)
Player Years Cmp Att Yards CMP% YPA TD INT RAT%
Bradford 3 604 893 8,403 64.6% 9.02 88 16 163.96
Russell 3 493 797 6,625 59.7% 8.1 52 21 143.59
Stafford 3 564 987 7,731 56.6 7.7 51 33 130.48

As you can see, Bradford is the far superior quarterback. You must also understand that he was injured for the majority of his junior season. Here is a glimpse of what Bradford’s stats may have looked like had he played his full junior season:

Player Years Cmp Att Yards CMP% YPA TD INT RAT%
Bradford 3 847 1,236 11,761 68.7 9.46 129 24 178.68

Sam Bradford is an immensely talented quarterback and can very well provide an immediate impact to the St. Louis Rams organization. There is no doubt in my mind that Sam will be successful in re-establishing the prestige that the St. Louis Rams are known for.

8 replies on “Let’s Make a Deal – Sam Bradford”

Just a view from the other side of the table….

1. You claim that Bradford is “a far superior quarterback” to both Russel and Stafford based on his college stats. But stats are extremely inflated because of the spread offense he played in at OU, usually against mediocre Big 12 defenses. And since when do good college statistics automatically transfer over to the NFL, especially when these stats were racked up in a QB friendly spread offense?

2. Although he has been cleared medically and looked good at his pro day (it’s easy to look good with no pass rush in your face and no defenders in sight), are we sure he can take a big NFL hit after what we saw happen in the BYU and Texas games?

3. You compare Bradford to JaMarcus Russell and Matthew Stafford. Even with the question marks that surrounded those two before they set foot on an NFL field, Bradford is a far bigger risk because of his injury history and the college offense he played in.

1. I’m presenting my case for Sam strictly on the basis of the trend in market price; that’s why I compared him to Stafford and Russell. College statistics coupled with intangibles, position play, etc are the only evidence that NFL teams have when they scout a player. So yes, I do think statistics are important.

2. The teams that were concerned with Bradford’s injury were mostly concerned with his status at the present. Could he make the NFL throws? Does he wince in pain when he throws the deep ball? Is his accuracy still dead on? When Sam showed the scouts that he could make those throws (pressure or not), their worries subsided. Sure, Sam may be affected by pressure but that is with any quarterback. It is his ability to fight through the adversity which makes him worth such a high amount of money.

3. Again, I am comparing Bradford to Russell and Stafford because they were the quarterbacks taken 1st overall in previous years. Obviously, if the Rams had any major concerns with Sam’s shoulder, they would not have taken him 1st overall.

Everybody wants to bash Sam. The fact is, even sitting out most of last season Sam was still by far better than any other QB in the draft. Has nothing to do with the system he was in or the conference he was in. He had Heisman trophy type numbers his Freshman year but wasn’t considered. He won the Heisman his Sophomore year and had surgury his Junior year. He’s better now and as accurate as ever. He will light up the NFL once the Rams beef up that line a bit. I believe Suh was the best player in the draft, but he’s not a QB. Lay off Sam, he’s earned every cent he will receive. Hopefully 50 to 55 mil guaranteed.

based on stats then timmy change, colt brennan and chase daniels should be worht $ 100

Your article is very thorough. However, it would have been nice if you would have predicted how much Sam Bradford would make. As well as, discuss why he would get that amount. Meaning, he will not only make a lot of money because he is a good player, but things like what about the NFL market that allows the Rams and other teams to give so much money to pay the first overall pick millions and millions. It would give insight to a regular fan, like me, what a sports agent would be thinking going into negotiations.

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